Asia's Emerging, New Silk Road

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The struggling economies of Central Asia would benefit from a UN project aimed at rebuilding the famous trade route to Europe

It's obvious to anyone crossing from western China into Kazakhstan or Kyrgstan that you're entering another world. The traffic jams, billboards and smooth highways are replaced on the Kazakh side by long queues at immigration and little sign of economic activity on the bumpy road to Almaty, the commercial capital.

Central Asia's problems are many. Government remains stuck somewhere in between the centralized economies of the Soviet era and a free market system which can efficiently exploit the region's mineral and other wealth for the benefit of its people. They have so far seen little profit from the region's much talked-of oil and gas.

Next door, China is booming - and some believe this growth can spread.

The UN Development Program's Beijing-based Silk Road Initiative （SRI） wants to rebuild the old road which brought Chinese goods to Europe, with a view to sharing China's prosperity with its western neighbors. Central Asia would contribute natural and human resources in return.

SPACE-AGE SKILLS

Aside from oil and gas, Central Asian states have a workforce that is well trained compared to poor masses in western China. This is largely due to the space and nuclear research facilities that peppered the far flung steppes of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the Soviet era, which has forged a legacy of science and engineering in the region.

By shifting production over the border or attracting skilled Central Asian labor to western Chinese cities like Urumqi, the SRI suggests that Chinese business can develop high-value manufacturing in regions such as Xinjiang, which have so far relied on agriculture and energy extraction.

Among the most serious obstacles to any such development are mutual suspicion and bad roads.

Central Asian governments remain oriented to Russia. The older generation of leaders in the region was handpicked by Moscow and Russian habits die hard. In Central Asia, this has unfortunately come to mean an authoritarian, state-centered approach to economics with plenty of cronyism attached.

Kazakhstan, the region's star performer, is still a long way behind acceptable norms in government accountability and transparency. It is said that up to 80% of the economy is controlled by the extended clan of President Nazarbaev. Neighboring Kyrgzstan has been more democratic, even deposing a president, but it remains hampered by bureaucracy and official corruption.

Border procedures remain drawn out, with an idiotic requirement for a visa for travel between states which are culturally and economically homogenous. What private business there exists is either slowed down here or suffocated by a pervasive bribe-seeking culture among police and government officials.

LIMITED OUTREACH

China too bears some of the blame for the obstacles to increased economic integration with Central Asia. Closed roads, border disputes and a lack of trade exchanges during the decades-long Sino-Soviet split remain hard to undo.

One remarkable Chinese initiative, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has thus far delivered on security issues for China.

It has secured Central Asian cooperation in shutting down cross-border cells of Uyghur fighters seeking to wrest Xinjiang province from Beijing's control. Today it's much harder for militant Uyghurs to seek refuge in Central Asian states, with whom they share religious and cultural affinities.

With that task accomplished, the SCO needs a sharper focus on economics. Beijing can extract oil and gas but the overall well being of its neighbors is important in giving China the stability it needs for its own economic growth. However, the organization has been distracted recently by Iran and India seeking membership and diluting the emphasis on integrating China and its Central Asian neighbors.

The Silk Road Initiative and the SCO both offer China a basis for a new, mutually beneficial relationship with Central Asia. Either could end up looking like the EU, which through trade integration and better infrastructure has turned poorer member states like Ireland and Spain （and now, Poland） into economic tigers.

Better roads, less bureaucracy and more cohesion in economic development policies could deliver similar benefits to China and Central Asia.

中国经济欣欣向荣，而中亚近邻则不见任何起色。联合国开发署启动复兴丝绸之路计划（SRI），就是希望让中国的繁荣惠及中亚地区，而中国西部的新疆地区亦可通过吸引中亚高素质劳动力而从事高附加值制造业。中国倡导成立的上海合作组织也应当转移工作重点，更加专注于中国与中亚地区的经济合作。如此，新丝绸之路计划和上海合作组织为中国与中亚国家之间发展新的互惠互利经贸关系奠定了一个良好的基础，双方最终可能会组成一个像欧盟一样的区域经济合作组织。

穿越中国西部进入哈萨克斯坦或吉尔吉斯斯坦境内的每一个人，都会强烈感受到自己走入了一个完全不同的世界。在哈萨克斯坦，看不到交通拥堵、栉次鳞比的公告牌和平坦的高速公路，映入眼帘的是一串串长长的移民队伍。通往商业之都阿拉木图的公路崎岖不平，而在沿途丝毫感受不到商业气息。

　　复兴丝绸之路，让中国发展惠及中亚

　　中亚地区仍存在着诸多问题 。中亚各国尚未摆脱苏联时期的计划经济体制，无法在一个自由化的市场经济体制下，有效利用该地区的矿产及其他资源为民造福。迄今为止，该地区最引人关注的石油和天然气资源尚未给他们带来经济利益。

　　而作为中亚国家的近邻，中国的经济却在蓬勃发展。有人认为，中国经济增长可以推动亚洲地区经济的发展。联合国开发计划署启动复兴中国丝绸之路计划（SRI），就是希望通过重建这条将中国商品远销至欧洲的古老商道，使中国经济的繁荣能惠及中亚国家，而中亚各国则可以为中国经济发展提供自然资源和人力资源。

　　利用中亚高素质劳动力，新疆可发展高附加值制造业

　　除了拥有丰富的石油和天然气资源外，中亚国家还拥有一支训练有素的劳动力队伍，而中国西部地区的大量劳动力则缺乏技能。这主要是由于前苏联将宇航发射及核武器试验基地设在了哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦两国偏远的草原地区，使该地区聚集了大批的科研和工程技术人员。

　　通过将生产基地搬迁至中亚或将中亚国家技术人员吸引至乌鲁木齐等中国西部城市，复兴丝绸之路计划（SRI）认为新疆等地区可以从事高附加值的制造业活动，而目前新疆的经济发展仍以农业和能源开采为主。

　　集权体制、官僚环境，束缚中亚经济发展

　　但此类经济合作活动遭遇的最大障碍是双方的相互猜忌及恶劣的交通状况。中亚各国政府依然受俄罗斯集权政治文化影响。该地区的老一辈领导人都是由苏联精挑细选，这些人死抱苏联模式不放，为中亚各国带来了高度集权的计划经济体制并导致了裙带主义盛行。即使是该地区经济最发达的哈萨克斯坦，政府的信誉和透明度要达到令人满意的水平仍有很长的路要走。据称，哈萨克斯坦80%的财富都掌握总统纳扎尔巴耶夫的家族手中。

　　邻国吉尔吉斯斯坦是一个相对较为民主的国家，甚至还罢黜了一个总统，但经济发展仍受到官僚习气和政府腐败的严重束缚。该地区的出入境手续仍然十分繁琐。在这个文化和经济结构相同的地区，竟然规定游客出入境需办理签证手续。该地区的私营企业或发展缓慢，或被警察和政府官员的严重贪污受贿风气所扼杀。

　　转移工作重点，上合组织应专注于经济合作

　　在阻碍同中亚国家开展经济一体化方面，中国同样负有某些不可推卸的责任。在长达数十年的中苏关系破裂期间，双方交通封锁、领土纠纷及抑制经贸往来留下的后遗症依然难以消除。在中国大力倡导下成立的另一个重要区域性组织，上海合作组织在维护中国安全方面发挥了极大的作用。该组织通过同中亚国家展开安全合作，使企图将新疆从中国分裂出去的境外东突武装分子无处藏身。如今，东突分子要在享有共同宗教和文化信仰的中亚各国寻求庇护将更为艰难。

　　随着这项任务的完成，上海合作组织需要更专注于促进双方经济领域的合作。中国可以从该地区获取石油和天然气资源，但帮助中亚地区经济全面走向富裕之路对确保中国经济增长所需的长治久安至关重要。不过，由于近期伊朗和印度提出加盟请求，上海合作组织对促进中国和中亚地区经济一体化问题的关注力有所下降。

　　新丝绸之路计划和上海合作组织都为中国与中亚国家之间发展新的互惠互利经贸关系奠定了一个良好的基础。双方最终可能会组成一个像欧盟一样的区域经济合作组织。欧盟就是通过贸易一体化和改善基础设施将爱尔兰和西班牙等实力较弱的成员变成了经济强国。改善交通道路条件、减少官僚作风并增强经济发展政策的凝聚力，同样有助于推动中国和中亚的区域经济一体化进程。